Features of the demographic situation in modern China. China's "one family, one child" population policy

Population dynamics

In terms of population, China ranks first in the world. By the end of 2000, 1.295 billion people (excluding Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan Province and Macao Region) lived on the Chinese mainland, accounting for 22 percent of the world's population.

As of early 2005, China's population was 1.3 billion.

The average population density in China is 130 people per square kilometer. km.. The population is distributed very unevenly: in the densely populated coastal regions of East China, the density is more than 400 people per 1 sq. km. km., in Central China - more than 200 people per 1 sq. km. km., and in the highlands of Western China, this figure is less than 20 people per 1 sq. km. km.

In 1949, the total population of the country was 541.67 million people. As a result of social stability, the development of production, the improvement of sanitary and medical conditions, and also due to insufficient awareness of the importance of controlling population growth and lack of experience in this matter, the total population grew rapidly and by 1969 it had already reached 806.71 million people . From the 70s. The Chinese government is increasingly aware that excessive population growth is not conducive to economic and social development and creates great difficulties in employment, housing, transportation, medical treatment, and so on.

If the government cannot effectively restrain the excessively rapid population growth, cannot reduce the enormous pressure of the growing population on land, forest and water resources, then after a few decades the ecology and environment will inevitably deteriorate, which undoubtedly becomes a threat to the elementary conditions of human existence and the long-term socio-economic development of society. That is why, based on the real situation in the country - the vastness of the territory, the backwardness of the economy, the large population and the lack of arable land - the Chinese government has begun birth control and a comprehensive improvement in the quality of life of the population.

This is intended to promote the coordinated development of population on the one hand, and the economy, society, resources and environment on the other. Thanks to the measures taken, the birth rate began to decline annually, by the end of 1998 it fell from 34.11 ppm in 1969 to 16.03 ppm, the natural population growth, respectively, decreased from 26.08 ppm to 4.53 ppm. Now, China has basically made the transition to a new model of population reproduction, characterized by low birth rates, low mortality and low population growth.

16 million children were born in 2002 in China, increasing the country's population to 1.28 billion. In parallel, 15.4 million men and women have either been sterilized or undergone other similar procedures. During the same period, 1.3 million abortions were performed in the PRC.
Under the government's population policy, urban spouses are allowed to have no more than one child, and rural families no more than two if the first child is a girl.

The birth rate in China, according to demographers, no longer ensures population growth, writes the Zhongguo Xiaofei Ribao newspaper. Zhai Zhenwu, director of the Institute of Demographic Research at the People's University of China, noted that the birth rate in China is now 1.8, while for the reproduction of the population this ratio should be 2.2.

According to the PRC GSSU, the number of citizens over the age of 60 in China exceeded 10% of the population. By international standards, this means that China's population is aging and will soon begin to decline, resulting in India becoming the world's most populous state by the middle of the 21st century.

According to the latest data from Chinese government statistics, over the past year, the population of China increased by 6.92 million people (by 0.53%), amounting to 1.314 billion by the end of December 2006.

The age structure of the country's population is characterized by an intensive process of increasing the proportion of people of working age. In the first years of the existence of the PRC, young people accounted for 34% of the population, in the late 60s - 43%. However, as a result of birth control measures specific gravity The population under the age of 15 has slightly decreased and now accounts for 33.6% of the total population.

Table 1.

Dynamics of the number and growth of the population of the PRC.

years	Population, million people	Population growth, %
1950	551,9	-
1955	614,6	11%
1960	662,1	8%
1965	725,4	10%
1970	829,9	14%
1975	924,2	11%
1980	987,1	7%
1985	1048,0	6%
1990	1160,0	11%
1992	1205,1	4%
2000	1309,7	9%
2025	1539,7	18%

In 1953, the share of persons under the age of 14 accounted for 36.3%, from 15 to 64 years - 59.3%, in 1964 - respectively, 40.4 and 56.1%; in 1972 - 35.8 and 59.4%; in 1982, this ratio changed quite significantly: up to 14 years old - 33.6%, 15-64 years old - 61.5, and in 2000 - 23 and 70%.

A feature of the structure of China's population is a significant excess of the male population over the female population (519.4 million, or 51.5%, and 488.7 million, or 48.5%, respectively). In China, the number of men exceeds the number of women by 30.7 million people. For every 100 women, there are 106 men. There are a number of provinces and districts in China with a large male population. This applies, first of all, to peripheral areas of intensive migration.

For many centuries, China has been characterized by exceptionally high mortality. Only in the late 1940s and early 1950s was it possible to significantly reduce mortality rates; infant mortality decreased by 3-4 times and amounted to 75 per 1000 children under the age of one year in cities. The number of people dying from infectious diseases has sharply decreased, and the structure of causes of death has also changed. A significant change in mortality, which took place in the 50s, was suspended in the period 1958-1962. Life expectancy at birth in 1981 was 67.9 years (66.4 for men and 69.3 for women).

Due to the change in the age structure and the increase in the proportion of older age groups in it, there will be a gradual increase in mortality - up to 7.3% by the year 2000 and 9.4% in the first third of the next millennium, according to UN projections.

In the early 1950s, it remained at a high and almost unchanged level, which was determined by the persistence of a complex of factors that determined the traditionally high birth rate in old China. The presence of peaceful conditions during this period of time, the favorable socio-economic situation in the country contributed to the formation of new families. The results of 16 surveys conducted in various provinces of China in 1951-1954 give an average birth rate of 41.6%. In the subsequent period of time, there is a clear trend towards a decrease in the birth rate - by the end of the 70s, the indicator had halved compared to the period of the 50s - 60s.

Table 2.

Dynamics of the mortality rate in China.

years	Mortality rate, %
1950	18,00
1955	12,28
1960	25,43
1965	9,50
1970	7,60
1975	7,32
1980	6,34
1985	6,57
1990	6,59
1992	6,60

The decrease in the birth rate occurred under the influence of changes in socio-economic conditions, the action of a number of long-term factors, among which the following should be noted:

1) an increase in the level of general and sanitary culture of the population, which led to a decrease in child mortality; fewer births were required to achieve the desired family size;

2) changing the functions of the family, the transformation of traditional family relations, reducing the economic usefulness of children;

3) the weakening of the religious norms of traditional Chinese society, the loss of the significance of many religious rituals;

4) involvement of women in active labor activity both in urban and rural areas, dissemination of education.

Table 3

Dynamics of the birth rate in China

years	Fertility rate, %
1950	37,00
1955	32,60
1960	20,86
1965	37,88
1970	33,43
1975	23,01
1980	18,21
1985	17,80
1990	19,37
1992	18,20

China belongs to the countries with a low level of urbanization, and until 1949 this was due to the insufficient development of modern production in cities. A significant increase in the urban population compared with the previous period was observed in 1953-1957. The urban population increased more rapidly than the rural population, with growth rates averaging 6.4% and 1.6% per year, respectively. The most urbanized areas include the provinces of Heilongjiang (40%) and Liaoning (42%). The largest cities are: Shanghai - 6.3, Beijing - 5.6, Tianjin - 5.1, Chongqing - 2.7, Harbin - 2.5.

By the beginning of 1958, about 3 million people had been expelled from urban areas. During this period, China's urban population increased to about 115 million. At the same time, there was also a movement from populous areas to sparsely populated ones, mainly from the cities of central subordination - Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, as well as from the densely populated provinces of the country.

There are currently 207 million people living in China's cities. The proportion of the urban population in the total population of the country is still not large - 20.6%. Obviously, the growth of cities is mainly due to natural population growth.

The growth of the urban population exacerbates the problems of providing citizens with housing, transport, utilities and other services. In 1977, in 190 cities of the country, on average, there was only 3.6 m 2 of living space per person. In subsequent years, housing construction in cities accelerated. Despite the growth of urban public transport, there were only 2.2 units of transport per 10,000 inhabitants. The maintenance of a rationed food supply system in cities also does not create conditions for the development of urbanization processes in the PRC.

Men made up 51.5% of the country's population, and the ratio between newborn boys and girls was 119.2 to 100, according to the State Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China.

The imbalance in the ratio of the number of men and women causes serious concern to the country's authorities. The traditional preference of the Chinese for the birth of boys has led to the fact that in the next 15 years there will be 25-30 million young men in the country who will not be able to find a mate. Already, there are 12.7 million more boys under the age of nine than girls.

Since Chinese city dwellers, according to strict demographic laws, are deprived of the right to have a second child (rural families are allowed to have two children - and then only if the first child is a girl), many families prefer to see a son as the only heir, not a daughter. As soon as a pregnant Chinese woman finds out that a girl is developing in her womb, a potential mother may have the idea of an abortion ...

After all, the birth of a girl will close the way to the birth of a son - the second child in the family is prohibited by law!

But now "sex-selective abortion" in the "Celestial Empire" is outlawed. From now on, the state will increase supervision of medical institutions that provide services for determining the sex of an unborn baby using ultrasound and abortion, and will severely punish individuals for such selective abortions, according to a joint statement by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council of the PRC.

In 2005, the population of the PRC increased by 7.68 million people (by 0.59%) to 1,307,560,000 people. If the Beijing leadership had not implemented a policy of strict birth control, China would have reached the 1.3 billion mark four years earlier, and the population of the country would have been 400 million more than in reality.

If in the 1970s the average Chinese couple had 5.8 children, now it is 1.8. To keep the number of inhabitants at a stable level, this figure should be 2.1. At the same time, demographic indicators are characterized by a certain inertia, so for the time being the population of the PRC is growing - but only at the expense of "old baggage".

If current trends continue, the population of the “Celestial Empire” will begin to decline in the 2030s, as a result of which India will become the most populous state in the world by the middle of the 21st century.

In 2005, 16.17 million people were born in China (the birth rate was 12.4 per thousand inhabitants), and 8.49 million died (the death rate was 6.51 ppm). The coefficient of natural growth of the population amounted to 5.89 ppm.

Hui Liangyu, Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, acknowledged that China has entered a stage of accelerated population aging. By the end of 2004, the number of people aged 60 and over in China reached 143 million, accounting for 11% of the country's population. According to forecasts, by 2020 the number of elderly Chinese will reach 284 million (20% of the total population of the country).

At the same time, the number of people of working age will be 940 million (65% of the population), after which it will begin to decline. By the middle of the 21st century, almost a quarter of China's population will be pensioners.

In 2002, 16 million children were born in China, increasing the country's population to 1.28 billion. In parallel, 15.4 million men and women have either been sterilized or undergone other similar procedures. During the same period, 1.3 million abortions were performed in the PRC.

In late 2004, a Chinese court fined a couple 780,000 yuan ($94,200) for having a second child. In addition, by decision of the court, the house in which the family lived was sealed. The couple is one of nine families that were recently fined for having more than one child. Their first child was born in 1997, and in 2003 they had twin boys.

In contrast to China's active birth control policy, Hong Kong municipal authorities are urging city dwellers to multiply more actively. "One family - three children" - such a slogan was made by the Chief Minister of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region - Donald Tsang, speaking on radio station RTHK-3.

According to him, today the birth rate in Hong Kong is at the level of 0.9 children per family, while for at least simple reproduction of the population it should be 2.1.

As a result, Hong Kong's population is rapidly aging, and unless there is a sharp increase in the birth rate in the near future, Hong Kong could become a "city of pensioners," Tsang said.

Chinese society is made up of 340 million families, with an average of 363 people for every 100 families. An ordinary Chinese family consists of spouses and children, there are also large families where people of three and even more generations live together. But as Chinese youth strive for freedom and independence in their personal lives, modern families are becoming more and more compact.

In the past, there was always a “head” in a Chinese family. Now, in most families, spouses independently or together with other members make plans for the future, jointly discuss current household chores. Moreover, worldly concerns are rationally divided among family members. As a rule, husband and wife support each other in work and at home.

The Chinese invariably adhere to the traditions of respect for the elderly and care for the younger. Although in many families adult children live separately from their parents, the closest family ties exist between the two generations, by law adult children are responsible for the maintenance of parents and help them. The Chinese traditionally have deep family feelings not only for parents and children, they maintain close ties with brothers and sisters, uncles and aunts, and with nephews.

The huge population gives all the problems in China scale, depth, extraordinary sharpness and urgency. The growth of the population, which is difficult to control, introduces to a large extent an element of spontaneity into the development of social production. Now it is becoming obvious that, without achieving population stabilization, it is impossible to achieve noticeable results in solving other socio-economic problems.

Population regulation mechanisms in China

Historically, the practice of conscious management of socio-demographic processes arose simultaneously with the formation of centralized states of a non-feudal type, with a relatively developed system of division of labor and extensive use of statistics (Egypt, Mesopotamia, and especially the ancient Chinese kingdoms).

If the feudal tradition considered the population as an integral part of the land allotment (lea, inheritance, estates, estates, etc.) given to the feudal lord for feeding, then the ancient Chinese practice of state building and administration widely and consciously used methods social management in everyday practice, for a long time ahead of European thought.

Thus, the classical ancient Chinese treatise Shang jun shu (Book of the ruler of the Shang region), dating from the 4th century BC. BC, which had a noticeable impact on the Chinese state tradition, focuses on population growth with the outstripping development of the food base through the cultivation of vacant land and the creation of food reserves.

The author of the treatise recommends a very complex system of state statistics: A powerful state knows thirteen kinds of counting: the number of eaters in the country, the number of adult men and women; old and weak; officials and military commanders; those who earn their living by speeches; rich; livestock of horses and bulls; amounts of hay and straw.

Anyone who wants to make his country powerful, but knows nothing about these thirteen types of counting, is doomed to failure: his state, despite favorable natural conditions and a large population, will be weaker and weaker and eventually subject to dismemberment.

Some attention was paid to the optimal ratio of the area of agricultural land and the population - exactly the problem that has become much more acute today both in China and on the planet as a whole.

Certain attention in the treatise is paid to the stability of public administration for a long time (the life of several generations). This is one of the first formulations of the problem of sustainable development, far ahead of its time.

In 2000, a new National Demographic Policy Program was prepared, the main goal of which is to achieve in 2010 a level of fertility corresponding to the simple reproduction of the population, and by 2045 to stabilize its numbers.

China's demographic policy is aimed at "repaying" the high birth rate. Thus, the age of marriage was raised (up to 20 for women and up to 22 for men), various types of incentive benefits were established, and vice versa, penalties. The main goal of population policy in China is the transition from a large family to a one-child or, at least, two-child family. Therefore, it is carried out under the mottos: "One child in the family", "One married couple - one child", "People without brothers and sisters", etc. A married couple limited to one child receives benefits: salary supplements, monthly allowances, free medical care, benefits when a child is placed in a kindergarten, when entering a school, university, etc. A two-child family is not only deprived of all these benefits, but is also obliged to pay a fine, in addition, parents can be demoted. And for families with a large number of children, there is also a scale of progressively increasing deductions from wages. Permission to have a child is issued by the local family planning committee, and with an indication of a certain period.

Zhang Guoqing, head of the PRC State Committee for Fertility Planning, speaking at a meeting on population policy, said that the population of mainland China should not exceed 1.37 billion by 2010. According to him, China has made significant progress in implementing a birth control policy since the late 1970s, and managed to prevent a rapid increase in the population. China is improving social and economic measures aimed at limiting the birth rate, promoting a system to encourage families that limit the birth of children, and actively promoting the slogan "bear less, get rich faster," Zhang added. In 2005, according to him, this movement has already covered 23 provinces and autonomous regions of China, primarily rural regions. In the coming years, China intends to strengthen and improve the system of legislative support for the policy of birth control, strive to ensure the gender balance of the population, and seek to reduce the number of newborn children with disabilities. The goals of China's population policy

China is a country that is often spoken of in superlatives. The oldest civilization in existence. Most populous country. The largest power in the Eastern Hemisphere. The fastest growing economy. However, despite the outstanding success of the Chinese economy, at least 130 million people live below the poverty line in underdeveloped, agrarian areas. And the gap between "advanced" and "backward" China continues to exacerbate the demographic problem.

Fertility planning

When planning the birth rate, the leadership of the state in that area is combined with the principle of voluntariness of the masses. The main content of birth planning is: encouraging late marriages and late childbearing, limiting the number of babies with an emphasis on improving the complex characteristics of the quality of the nation, calling for a married couple to have only one child. The policy of planned childbearing is carried out differently in cities and villages, in areas densely populated by national minorities and areas where the khan population predominates, that is, in rural areas and areas of national minorities, concessions are allowed. Peasant families experiencing difficulties due to a shortage of labor are allowed to have a second child, subject to a certain interval after the birth of the first. In areas of national minorities, there are different rules depending on the will and number of this nationality, the availability of local resources, the state of the economy, cultural traditions, folk customs, etc., in general, each family can have two children, in other areas - three. There are no restrictions for ethnic minorities that are too small.

At present, there are profound changes in the views of the Chinese people on marriage, children and family, while the desirability of late marriages, late childbearing, limiting the number of children in order to ensure the health and well-being of the next generation has already become their common understanding. In young families, a boy and a girl are equally welcome. The creation of a happy and harmonious small family, a scientific and civilized way of life are gradually becoming the rule of society. At the same time, planned childbearing allows Chinese women to get rid of the patriarchal traditions of having many children and the burden of household chores, and this, in turn, helps to increase the social role of women and the level of health of mother and child.

Twenty years ago, any Soviet schoolboy knew that every fourth person in the world is a Chinese. Today, everyone knows that the demographic situation in China is under state control. The fight to reduce China's birth rate since the late 1970s has prevented 400 million births in the country, roughly the size of the US and Mexico combined.

Nevertheless, by 2010 the total labor force in the country will reach 830 million people, and there will be a shortage of vacancies of about 10 million, Chinese Minister of Labor and Social Security Tian Chengping recently said. The migration of the population to developed countries with higher income levels helps to reduce tension in the issue of employment in the country. More than 35 million Chinese citizens officially reside outside of China, according to a report published earlier this year by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Most of them live and work in the USA, Canada, Australia and European countries.

They "help developed countries cope with their current problems of population aging and declining fertility." When planning the birth rate in China, the state adheres to the "principle of voluntariness", the country's media say. And the Chinese, despite a number of strict restrictions, continue to breed quite actively. In the near future, the Chinese government is waiting with horror for another baby boom.

The fact is that the coming year of the Pig is marked by "metal", that is, gold, and according to the Chinese, children born this year are doomed to success and material prosperity, so parents plan the birth of a child for this period. According to forecasts by the committee on birth planning and the population of Shanghai, in 2007 more than 137,000 children will appear in the city - twice as many as in the previous year. In Beijing, local authorities expect the birth of approximately 150,000 children. The main problem is that hospitals may not be able to cope with such an influx of women in labor. Hospitals in Beijing, Harbin, Fuzhou and Haikou have been put on alert, and many hospitals are increasing the number of beds on an emergency basis. According to the Shanghai Punan Gynecological Hospital, the number of pregnant women has recently increased several times. And in some hospitals, places in the maternity wards are reserved until April.

By the way, in the last "favorable for the appearance of children" year 2000 of the Dragon, twice as many children were born than in the previous 1999, that is, about 36 million people. Another serious problem caused by the "One family - one child" policy is again the desire of people to have a potential breadwinner in the family - a boy. Now, for every 100 female births in China, there are 117 male births. Realizing that in 10-15 years many of today's boys will be without women, scientists and officials began to look for a solution to this problem. For example, in October last year, Wei Jinsheng, an expert at the Research Center for Demography and Development of the People's Republic of China, proposed an amendment to the Criminal Code that would penalize the determination of the sex of a human embryo, if this is not due to medical indications. So far, the PRC has not moved to such tough measures. However, in 2005, the Chinese authorities began paying a monthly subsidy of 1,200 yuan ($148) to families where one girl was born.

The PRC is a multinational state, but almost 92% of the population, according to the last census conducted in November 2000, are Han Chinese. The remaining 55 nationalities make up 8%. All of them, except for the Han, are usually called national minorities. The most colorful national composition- Yunnan province. More than 20 nationalities live here. 39 out of 56 nationalities of China have their own language and writing. But recently there have been fears in the state that the languages of national minorities will disappear due to the fact that in most schools in areas inhabited by small nationalities, teaching is conducted only in Chinese.

More than 40 national minority languages in China are on the verge of extinction, despite the fact that great efforts are being made in the country to save them: "banks" of their sound, writing samples are being created. In areas densely populated by national minorities, there are national regional autonomies, which involve the creation of self-government bodies. Now China has five autonomous regions: Xinjiang Uyghur, Guangxi Zhuang, Ningxia Hui, Tibet and Inner Mongolia. It should be noted that it is much easier for representatives of national minorities to have a second child than for most Chinese: there are "indulgences" for them in the "One family - one child" policy. Depending on the size of the nationality and local resources, a family may have two children, and in some areas - three. And for too small national minorities, restrictions are not set.

The average per capita income in China is 25 times less than in the United States. The gap between the standard of living of the urban and rural population is also significant. And while 400 million Chinese have been lifted out of poverty since 1990, the same number still earn less than $2 a day. Experts estimate that 10% of the population lives below the poverty line. Many residents of agrarian areas tend to rich developed eastern cities, where fixed capital and wealth are concentrated. most of investment. The construction boom in the east of the country is attracting cheap labor. Bankrupt Chinese peasants become guest workers building Shanghai skyscrapers.

In old China, despite the high birth rate traditional for agrarian civilizations (35-40%o), the population grew rather slowly due to high mortality (25-30% 0), and even decreased in certain periods of natural disasters or active hostilities. For example, during the years of the Taiping Rebellion (1851 - 1869), about 50 million people died, and the population, which numbered 430 million in 1850, had the same number at the beginning of the 20th century. The average life expectancy was less than 30 years.

Results of demographic policy

After the formation of the PRC in the 1950s, the birth rate remained high, as the old factors continued to operate: the traditional desire for a large family, the hope that children would be a support in old age, dependence on the number of workers who cultivate the land in peasant families, etc. At the same time, as a result of a significant improvement in medical care, an increase in the sanitary culture of the population, the fight against epidemics, and an increase in the standard of living of the population as a whole, mortality has sharply decreased. China found itself in a critical phase of the demographic transition, and the population began to grow at a very high rate. This required a restraining demographic policy.

An active demographic policy aimed at an all-round reduction in the birth rate was actually launched in the 70s, and from the beginning of the 80s they began to implement measures to support families with one child. The family planning policy includes the provision of various benefits to such families: the right to priority housing, free child care in a good kindergarten, university and employment benefits, and monthly allowances. When a second child is born, families are deprived of these benefits and, as a rule, are forced to pay a fine, the amount of which, depending on income and area of residence, can range from several hundred to several thousand yuan (up to 10-20 average salaries). In a number of cases (if the first child is a girl, in the most prosperous areas of rural areas, etc., as well as in areas inhabited by national minorities), since the beginning of the 90s it has been allowed to have two children.

In general, China's demographic policy is effective, especially in cities, and has led to a significant decrease in the birth rate - 15.2% 0

When the policy of "one family - one child" was introduced in China, it was said that it was designed for one generation. Today there is a need to assess the effectiveness of this policy and the feasibility of its adjustment.

At present, a few provinces still adhere to the "one child policy", "one and a half children policy" to most provinces, "two children policy" to some provinces, and "many children policy" to a minority of provinces. In the introduction of this policy for some time, it was clearly oriented. Family planning policy (PPP) has contributed to a significant reduction in the number of births and family size. With the entry into marriageable and childbearing age of the population born after the adoption of family planning, especially the only children in the family, the number and proportion of those who are allowed to have two children increase significantly. So, in Shanghai, if the current policy does not change, the absolute majority of spouses will have the right to have two children. Therefore, the policy needs to be revised.

The introduction of the policy of having women give birth "later, less often and less" in the 70s generally corresponded to Chinese reality, was easily accepted by the population and gave good results. However, in the early 1980s, the "one family - one child" policy no longer corresponded to reality and was hardly accepted by the people. Therefore, starting in 1984, it was necessary to "open small loopholes" in order to reduce resistance to the course. Judging by the practical results, all more of people are accepting the current PPP, so it can still be largely continued. This, however, does not mean that there are no difficulties along the way. In fact, there is significant resistance in the countryside. And for this reason also the policy needs to be changed.

Since 1984, a number of provinces began to make some amendments to the PPP in order, on the one hand, to strictly limit excessive population growth, and on the other, to take into account the interests of the people and their ability to perceive politics. The current teaching staff has taken a big step forward compared to the one-child course, but this does not mean that there are no irrational moments in it. The latter manifest themselves, firstly, in an incomplete account of the difference between the conditions of the city and the countryside; secondly, in too great differences in the rights of the Chinese population and national minorities; thirdly, that the circumstances associated with the birth of a second child are not comprehensively thought out; fourthly, in the excessive complexity of some of the provisions, which makes it difficult for the grassroots bodies to understand them. All this should be resolved in the future PPP.

Since the beginning of family planning in the 1970s, there have been quite large changes in people's views on fertility. They manifested themselves mainly in an apparent decrease in the desire to have many children. However, people do not yet fully agree with the requirements of the current PPP. "To have at least two children - a boy and a girl" - such is the minimum aspiration of the vast majority of married couples in the present and future.

At the same time, the results of studies of intentions in the field of childbearing leave doubts. Propaganda and implementation of teaching staff contribute to the formation of some attitudes. In the current conditions, it is difficult for people to imagine that the state can allow them to freely determine how many children they would like to have, therefore, answering this question, they are more or less influenced by the current official policy.

The reproductive attitudes of the population are formed over a long period of time, and it is impossible to completely change them in a short historical period. The one-child policy, proclaimed in the early 1980s, was intended to limit the population to 1.2 billion by the year 2000. For various reasons, this was not achieved, and the maximum number began to be formulated as "about 1.2 billion people." Today it is defined as 1.3 billion people.

The planned total fertility rate inevitably differs from the actual one. Currently, the former is about 1.6 and the latter is about 2.0. This means that the population of China will continue to grow for a long time, and its limit values, determined by the Center for the Study of the State of the Country of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, at 1.6-1.7 billion people, will inevitably be overcome rather quickly.

Some researchers believe that the difference between planned and actual births is so great because of too strict family planning policies, and if a married couple is allowed to have two children, this difference will be significantly reduced or even disappear. This is hardly the case. In Guangdong, the PPP was initially quite liberal, rural women were universally allowed to have at least two children, and yet in the Guangdong village, the established order was quite often violated, and the difference between planned and actual births was quite large.

Caution must be exercised when adjusting PPPs. In the past, this rate changed frequently, leading to undulating birth rates in the 1980s. The price of China's declining birth rate is an aging population and a loss of balance between the sexes of newborns. If this price turns out to be too high and unacceptable socio-economically and psychologically, then change becomes inevitable.

In making this adjustment, the following circumstances must be taken into account. Firstly, the birth rate in China is currently really low, but this has been achieved mainly due to family planning, without a modernization base, so the situation is disequilibrium and instability. Second, with such a huge baseline and population growth momentum, even if the total fertility rate per woman remains at today's low levels, China's population growth can only be halted in a few decades. Third, even if the current PPP remains unchanged, the planned birth rate will still increase, especially in urban areas. All three of these factors mean that China has no choice but to exercise fairly tight control over population growth.

Course correction should not make it harder. In general, this is not necessary, although in some cases greater rigor is appropriate to keep the PPP uniform throughout the country.

Liberalization of the course suggests two possible options. The first is to allow those couples where one of the spouses was an only child to have two children; the second is to give such permission to everyone.

The first option can be implemented in the city and the countryside in different ways. With regard to the latter, here this course is actually being implemented. Until 2010, the planned total fertility rate in the village will be 1.6, and the actual - 2.1. In the city, however, the situation is different. Since the beginning of the 1970s, when a rather tough policy on family planning began to be adopted, the total fertility rate per woman has rapidly declined to almost the planned level, and the vast majority of children were the only ones in families. It is these children who today have already entered or are entering the age of marriage and childbearing. Therefore, a change in the exchange rate cannot lead to a significant increase in the actual birth rate. Until 2010, the planned total fertility rate in the city will be 1.8, and the actual - 1.85, while in the country as a whole the first - 1.8, and the second - 2.0. Thus, this is the preferred course option.

The second option also affects the city and the countryside differently. In the city until 2010, it will only slightly increase (by 0.2) the planned birth rate compared to the first option. In the countryside, the planned birth rate will increase from 1.6 to about 2.0. For the country as a whole, the planned birth rate will be 2.0, and the actual - 2.3. This option is clearly unacceptable.

On March 5, the National People's Party Congress (NPC) of the People's Republic of China starts discussing amendments to the country's criminal code. If they are accepted, doctors who inform parents about the sex of the unborn child, as well as performing gender-based abortions, face long prison sentences.

The reason for the discussion of the repressive law was a serious demographic imbalance that has arisen in modern China: for 120 boys, only 100 girls are born here. The reason is simple. Since the late 1970s, the PRC has been pursuing a very rigid policy of birth control. In every possible way, the Chinese are taught the idea: "One family - one child." Indeed, the widely publicized demographic program has already brought positive results. The PRC was the first country in the world to quite deliberately halt population growth. The 1.3 billionth inhabitant of the country was born only in January 2005, four years later than expected.

However, according to a tradition established in ancient times, a Chinese family must have a son - the support and continuation of the family. In conditions when the state allows to have only one child, many parents go to the trick. They learn in advance from doctors about the gender of the unborn child and, if it turns out to be a girl, they terminate the pregnancy in order to try again to give birth to a boy. The results are in. If the imbalance between men and women continues to grow, by 2020, 40 million Chinese men are at risk of being left without a spouse.

China's demographic resources are unparalleled in the world. In 2003, the population was about 1.287 billion people, or 22% of the population of the planet Earth [Table 1]

China's population reached 1.3 billion on January 6, 2005, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Over the past two decades, the population reproduction regime in China has changed radically. Natural population growth can no longer be attributed to the category of underdeveloped countries: in particular, the annual natural population growth has decreased to less than 1%, and the average life expectancy has exceeded 70 years. This situation is a consequence, on the one hand, of the government’s tough demographic policy, and on the other hand, improving the financial situation of people and their medical care [Figure 1]

The demographic problem has always been at the center of attention of both the Chinese government and the world community. Beginning in August 1956, the government deliberately exercised control over the population, namely: young people were forbidden to marry before the age of 20, and married couples were allowed to have no more than one child (with the exception of representatives of national minorities, for whom the bar is raised to the level two children). Consequently, the policy of population stabilization has borne fruit.

However, this coin also has its flip side: it is necessary to take into account such negative consequences of demographic policy as the relative reduction in the working-age population, which bears an increasingly heavy demographic burden, and the growing dissatisfaction of citizens with state interference in the personal life of every citizen.

By the end of March 2001, it reached 1 billion 295 million 330 thousand people. The distribution of the population is uneven. In the past ten years, the eastern part of China has recorded faster population growth than the western regions of the country. The second summary of the results of the 5th general population census released on March 30, 2001 by the State Bureau of Statistics of China showed that the population in the 12 western provinces, autonomous regions and cities accounted for about 28.1 percent of the country's population, declining by 0. 3 percentage points compared to 10 years ago.

The results of China's 5th general population census showed that nine provinces in the country have a population of more than 50 million people each.

According to a report released on April 2, 2001 by the State Bureau of Statistics of China, the largest province in terms of population is Henan, located in Central China, with a population of 92.56 million. It is followed by the province of Shandong in East China with a population of 90.79 million. The rest of the provinces with a population of more than 50 million are listed in order: Guangdong / 86.42 million /, Sichuan / 83.29 million /, Jiangsu / 74.38 million /, Hebei / 67.44 million. /, Hunan / 64.40 million /, Hubei / 60.28 million /, Ankoi / 59.86 million /.

The statistical summary also showed that the Tibet Autonomous Region has the smallest population in the country, with a population of 2.62 million as of November 1, 2000. The list of sparsely populated provinces and autonomous regions of the mainland includes Qinghai Province /5.18 million/, Nixia Hui Autonomous Region /5.62 million/ and Hainan Province /7.87 million/.

The population in all four cities of central subordination exceeded 10 million people: Chongqing - 30.9 million, Shanghai - 16.74 million, Beijing - 13.82 million, Tianjin - 10.01 million [ Figure 2]

The population density in mid-2000 was, according to UN statistics (including residents of Hong Kong and Macao / Macao /), 1285.0 million people, or 21.2% of the world population.

At the same time, the complex problem of its population remains the main, vital task of China's development. Moreover, it escalated, came to the fore during the years of people's power, attracting wide attention both in the country and in the world. What are its most important features and possible solutions?

The average population density of the PRC is 134 people/km 2 . Among Asian countries, even large ones, this is not such a high figure. For Japan it is 341, North Korea - 195, South Korea- 475, for India - 308, Pakistan - 195, Indonesia - 112, Philippines - 252, Vietnam - 242. It is very high in Bangladesh: there the average population density reached 873 people / km 2, increasing in recently by 12-14 people/km 2 annually [Figure 4]

However, the actual population density of China, as in other countries, including in East, Southeast and South Asia, differs sharply from the average values. Thus, in the province of Jiangsu, where more than 70 million inhabitants, the average population density is about 700 people/km2, in the same ordinary province of Shandong (more than 90 million inhabitants) - 600 people/km2, almost the same Henan province, whose population is approaching 100 million people, in 7 more provinces - from 350 to 450 people / km2, etc. About 1 billion people. in China, namely in the eastern half of the country, thus live in conditions of high and very high population density.

In the cities of China, as in other countries, there are tens of thousands of inhabitants per square kilometer; in agricultural areas, primarily in rice-growing areas in the east, especially in river deltas, there are 3,000, 4,000, 5,000 people. and more per 1 km2 on average. In the second half of the twentieth century. China's population has grown like never before, at a rapid pace and on a massive scale [Appendix 1]

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Introduction

China is the world's most populous country and has long held the world's leading position in this indicator. Therefore, the issue of demographic policy in this country is one of the most important, and the problems associated with the size of the population are especially acute here, and at this stage, without solving these problems, it is impossible to raise living standards.

In terms of population, China occupies the 1st place in the world - more than 1364 million people, and this means that every fifth inhabitant of the Earth is Chinese. Censuses in China have been conducted since ancient times, fixing the number of households for labor service or determining the number of inhabitants by the amount of salt eaten or mail. After the formation of the PRC, national censuses were held four times: in 1953, the population was about 588 million people, in 1964 - 705 million, in 1982 - 1.08 billion and in 1990 - 1.13 billion people. The population is distributed extremely unevenly throughout the country, its predominant part is concentrated on the coastal plains, in the valleys of the main Chinese rivers. The south of the Great Plain of China, the deltas of the Yangtze and Zhujiang rivers, and the Sichuan depression are distinguished by a very high population density. Alpine, desert areas, on the contrary, are rarely inhabited, but within their limits one can find densely populated areas of oasis agriculture. The population is dominated by men - 51.6%. The share of women is lower, which is typical for populous developing countries. This is due to the higher social status of men, difficult working conditions for women and frequent childbirth.

1. Policy "One family - one child"

china demographic family

China was forced to legally limit family size in the 1970s when it became clear that a huge number of people were overloading the country's land, water and energy resources. This demographic policy was called - "One family - one child." The Chinese leadership associates the fulfillment of socio-economic and political tasks with limiting the growth of a huge population. In order to limit population growth, since the mid-1960s, a family planning policy has been implemented in the country, and with increasing tightening of it. If at first a family with three children was allowed, then after a few years families were offered to have no more than two children, and from the beginning of the 80s they began to consider an exemplary family with one child.

The streets of the cities were full of slogans calling for having only one child: “To give birth to only one child is good!”, “To pursue a family planning policy meant to stimulate the successful implementation of the policy of four modernizations,” etc. successfully, were beautifully dressed, it was felt that they were surrounded by attention and care. Families with one child received benefits, such as the right to priority housing, free maintenance of a child in a kindergarten, advantages in admission to universities, etc. Peasant families with one child were increased in the size of allocated household plots. For spouses with two or more children, sanctions were introduced in a number of areas, for example, at the birth of a second child, parents are required to return the bonus that was paid to them monthly as a family with one child, and in addition, pay a fine, the amount of which, depending on income and residences ranged from a few hundred to several thousand yuan. Among concrete family planning measures is the promotion of late marriages. Officially, the age of marriage for women is 20 years, for men - 22 years, but additional restrictions were introduced, for example, it was strictly forbidden to create a family for students up to the threat of expulsion from the institute. At the same time, there was a trend towards the revival of the traditions of "early marriages".

In matters of marriage, China has gradually become more modern country. Previously, marriages were arranged by arrangement between parents. Divorce was no longer a rarity, but still their share was significantly lower than in Western countries, since divorce is considered a shame for the Chinese.

It should be noted that the slogan "One family - one child" was carried out taking into account local conditions and national characteristics. Thus, in areas inhabited by national minorities, the number of children could not be limited.

The “pros” of implementing the “one” child policy:

1. If prohibitions are now abandoned, then an equally numerous category of children will be added to the numerous old people. As a result, the proportion of the non-working population will increase by at least a quarter, and this state of affairs will continue for another 18 years.

2. The unprecedented economic growth that China has been demonstrating over the past 20 years has been achieved, among other things, thanks to the “one family, one child” policy.

3. The overall standard of living of a single Chinese family is growing. For their only child, parents can provide both a good education and opportunities for creative growth.

4. The cities of the country are overpopulated. Already, the level of urbanization of the population of China is approaching 50%. In the case of permission for a second child and, accordingly, a demographic jump in cities, a sharp deterioration in the environmental situation in the country is possible.

5. It is becoming more and more difficult for Chinese peasants to feed the urban population every year. China imported 575,000 tons of rice in 2011, and 2.8 million tons in 2012. And this is with a ban on large families. What will happen if the one-child policy has to be abolished?

However, the implementation of measures to curb population growth gives rise to new problems, including the aging of the population and the upbringing of single children in the family. The average life expectancy of the country's population in 2000 was 71.4 years. The population over the age of 65 has reached the 7% barrier - more than 90 million people. Therefore, they try to attract the attention of the general public to the problem of the elderly. State spending on pensions, treatment, and material assistance is growing, and research in the field of gerontology is being activated. New problems also arose due to the lack of experience and traditions in raising children in families where the child is the only one. The Chinese press often talks about "little emperors", absolutely helpless, not accustomed to independence. Even at the age of ten, they cannot dress themselves, clean their clothes, not to mention the simplest personal hygiene skills. Parents choose for the child and future profession, and prefer prestigious professions associated with mental work, creativity. They, regardless of the abilities of the child, want their child to occupy a higher position than themselves. Many Chinese families still want to have sons, since sons are the mainstay in old age, because a girl usually goes to her husband's house. Family contracting in the village also forces boys to be preferred. Under the policy of allowing only one child per family, women try to get rid of the unborn child if doctors believe that it will be a girl. There are frequent cases of killing of newborn girls, although the law is very severely punished for this.

Consequences of implementing the one-child policy:

The birth rate in China has dropped so much that if we continue at this pace, the population may decline. The birth rate in China is currently 1.7, well below the population replacement level of 2.1. According to UN estimates, the population of the country by the end of the century may be reduced to 940 million. India will be far ahead of China by then.

The population is rapidly aging. In 2011, the age group over 60 in China was 185 million. It is predicted that in 2013 the figure will reach 200 million. And in the future, the dynamics of its growth will be + 7-8 million annually.

Share age group up to 14 years in 2010 was 16.6%, which was the lowest figure in the history of the country. A decrease in the number of young people as the most active and creative part of the population in the future may adversely affect the development of the country.

The only children in the family (now in China they are called “little emperors”), according to psychologists, are distinguished by inertia, lack of initiative, and laziness. The current well-being of the country was created and increased by generations of those over 30, that is, people from large families. As for today's Chinese children, they say that they no longer differ from their European or American peers. Just as spoiled.

If existing policies continue, the PRC may face a long-term gender imbalance in favor of boys. Now parents prefer to leave boys, which has already led to demographic inequality in society. For a long time, there are 120 boys for every 100 newborn girls. According to preliminary estimates, by 2020 there will be about 25 million bachelors in China. The ban on the preliminary determination of the sex of the child is an extreme measure, and it is also unlikely to justify itself.

The restriction on the second child is already very often bypassed: either with the help of tricks (they go to give birth abroad, in another province, in the village), or they simply ignore it, and then pay a fine. Thus, in 2007, in the Chinese province of Hubei, more than 90,000 people violated this law, including 1,678 officials and party members.

The continuation of such a policy is fraught with an increase in social tension in a society where children become the privilege of the prosperous part of the citizens. By paying fines, wealthy Chinese actually buy themselves the right to be realized as parents. The poor are deprived of this happiness.

The implementation of the current policy leads to tragic consequences of a medical and psychological nature. Over the thirty years of its existence, about 400 million abortions have been performed in the country.

According to some experts in the field of demography, if the policy of "one family - one child" is abandoned, no population explosion will follow in China, because it has already completed the so-called demographic transition, when a high standard of living already limits the birth rate, and a high level of medicine, respectively, limits mortality.

Relaxing the One Family, One Child Policy

Now, the Chinese authorities fear a labor shortage in the future. China's working-age population - people aged 16 to 59 - fell in 2012 and 2013. The number of workers who could have contributed to the development of three decades of rapid economic growth is being reduced. As China's labor supply shrinks, its potential growth rate will fall to an average of 6.2% per annum from 2016 to 2020. Fan Gang, a former adviser to the People's Bank of China, speaking at a forum in Wuhan City, predicted potential growth rates from 7% to 8% p.a. until 2020

The rule “one family - one child” that has been in force for 34 years will be changed. Chinese authorities have agreed to ease the "one family, one child" policy, the Xinhua news agency reported. Families will now be allowed to have two children if one of the parents was an only child. This will help maintain the required size of the workforce, China's National Health and Family Planning Commission said. The average economic growth rate in China will be 6.6% until 2030 and 2.3% in 2030-2060. This is the biggest shift in the country's social policy and the biggest expansion of economic rights in China in 30 years, UBS analysts said. After years of denial, the Chinese government has finally acknowledged the demographic problem, said Cai Yong of the University of North Carolina.

The rule "one family - one child" was introduced in 1979 to curb population growth due to limited land, water and energy resources, was established demographic target 1.2 billion people by 2000. The government claims to have succeeded in “reducing the pressure that population growth has placed on resources and environment". In fact, the population of the country in 2000 grew to 1.24 billion, in 2010 - to 1.34 billion, the number of elderly people (from 60 and above) increased to 160 million (13.3% of able-bodied citizens). Demographic goal for 2020 - 1.43 billion people. It is unlikely to be achieved, Chinese officials admit. The rapid aging of the population threatens to undermine the competitiveness of the world's second largest economy and provoke a pension crisis, warned the OECD. years will increase by 164.5%. Now the country has 1 billion able-bodied population (aged 15 to 64), by 2050 its number will be reduced to 615 million against an increase in India by 320 million to 1.1 billion people. The effect of abolishing the one-child rule will be insignificant: it may increase the birth rate by 1-2 million people in the first few years, but this will not solve the labor force problem. Most young families do not want to have more than one child, only 8% of those who previously had the opportunity to have a second took advantage of this opportunity, demography expert Xi Yafu tells the FT.

On the this moment In China, there is an active discussion of the pros and cons of the liberalization of the "one child" policy.

On the one hand, fines called “social education fees” have been levied for years on those who violated the one-child policy. Chinese media reports that the fine generated a staggering $2.7 billion in provincial government coffers in 2012 alone. This is a significant amount, especially given the growing debts of regional administrations.

On the other hand, one of the factors that contributed to the liberalization of policy was a sharp change in the demographic composition of the population. China's National Bureau of Statistics said earlier in 2013 that the country's working-age population aged 15 to 59 fell by 3.45 million to 937 million.

Researchers from the International Monetary Fund noted that "in a few years, the level of the working population will reach a historical maximum, and then a sharp decline will begin." There is a lot of debate about the possibility of China reaching a "Lewis turning point", when the country transforms from a state with a huge labor force into an economy with a shortage of such resources. If this happens, the consequences will be significant not only for China, but for the whole world, which is so dependent on cheap products made in this country. The consequences of not revising the one-child policy could be much worse than liberalizing it.

Bibliography

1. Online magazine "Market Leader"

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So, over the past decades, China has effectively controlled population growth (due to which it did not exceed 1.3 billion people by 2000, which made it possible to reach a per capita GDP of $800). However, with the rapid decline in the birth rate, other problems of the population arise - such as its rapid aging, which in the long term leads to a shortage of labor and excessive spending on social needs. All this may eventually slow down China's progress towards the creation of a "small prosperity" society.

Limiting population growth helps solve some problems, but creates new ones. A whole series of intractable demographic puzzles has been pulled out. The declining birth rate coupled with the lengthening of life expectancy has already led China to face the problem of an aging population. Three years ago, the number of people over 60 in the country passed the 100 million mark and continues to grow in geometric progression. According to experts, if the current trend continues, in 2040 the number of elderly Chinese will reach a quarter of a billion and will exceed the number of young people (under 20) by 2-3 times. The time is not far off when every pair of working spouses will have to support one child and four elderly people, which will lead to additional state budget expenditures on pensions, social insurance and medical care.

Another demographic problem China has become birth control among the peasants, scattered throughout the cities in search of work. The number of such uncountable migrants exceeds 80 million. Keeping track of everyone is not possible, so the question of planning the reproduction of the population in their environment is practically insoluble. According to statistics, record birth rates are observed in the most backward and poor areas of the country, where early marriages are widespread. Finally, according to experts, the policy of birth control cannot be considered separately from the problem of education - according to official data, the number of illiterate people over the age of 15 in China reaches 180 million, which is 15.8% of the total population. And this is not a complete list of the consequences of demographic change.

At present, the age structure of the Chinese population is characterized by an intensive growth in the number of people of working age. In the early years of the PRC, 34% of the population accounted for young age, but due to a tough demographic policy aimed at reducing the birth rate, the number of people under the age of 15 began to decrease and now accounts for 33.6% of the total population.

At present, Chinese demographers are giving priority to questions of population theory, which is called upon to provide a scientific justification for the development of practical measures of demographic policy. Back in the early 1980s. the work of the well-known Chinese scientist Liu Zheng contained the following fundamental proposition - "the most pressing problem for China as a whole is to eliminate disproportions in the national economy and establish a rational relationship between the reproduction of the population and the production of material goods. This is necessary for the speedy development of social productive forces and a significant increase in standard of living of the population".

According to Chinese scientists, the solution to the growing problems of population is possible on the basis of the phased implementation of appropriate measures, and at each stage the priority goals of the policy should change. Emphasis is now being placed on birth control measures and the reduction of child and infant mortality with a flexible approach to employment issues and raising the status of women in society, in the future, it is planned to solve the problems of population aging and the development of a social security system.

Demographic research in the PRC is characterized by consideration of population problems in the context of the economic situation in close connection with the natural, environmental characteristics. The economic importance of birth planning comes to the fore. The guiding ideology of the strategy is to control the population, improve the quality of the population, improve the structure of the population, create conditions for socialist modernization while ensuring conditions for stability in population growth and the development of the socio-economic sphere. The concept of "quality of the population" includes its health, level of education and social maturity. The concept of “improving the structure of the population” includes regulation of the age structure (the accelerating processes of population aging, primarily the aging of labor resources, deserve special attention), the structure of the population by sex (in a number of areas the proportion of boys is much higher than girls) and the ratio of the number of urban and rural residents.

The main points of demographic policy: changing the traditional worldview in matters of fertility; population control in the village; population control in areas with high birth rates; control over migrants; raising the level of basic education and strengthening vocational education and technical training.

The main stages of the strategy are identified and the demographic parameters of each stage are determined, contributing to the achievement of the strategic goal in the field of population development, which boils down to the fact that the population should not exceed 1.6 billion people. by 2050

According to the latest calculations by Chinese scientists (Peking University Population Institute) and scientists from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria), although in the coming decades, taking into account the young age structure, the population of China will grow, by the middle of this century it will decrease to about 1.28 billion .(with a probability of 60%) or up to 1.35 billion (with a probability of 80%). According to their calculations, the maximum population of the PRC (in the amount of 1.38 billion people) will be reached approximately by 2025, and then it will begin to gradually decline. If this prediction comes true, China will be the epitome of the largest demographic transition in world history.

It is necessary to say about the reform in China's agriculture, which is mainly associated with the development of the population and economic growth.

The Chinese system of people's communes was replaced by a "contractual responsibility system with remuneration". Throughout the country, it was established in 1983. The land, within the framework of collective farms, was leased to peasants in a collective and family contract. It consisted of two parts: one (like a personal plot) was intended to feed the family, the other - to give commercial grain to the city (with compensation). Having ensured the delivery of a certain amount of grain to the collective farm and the city, the peasant received the right to dispose of the rest of the products at his own discretion. At the same time, the equipment and basic services for production remained in the hands of collective farms.

The reform freed up additional labor force, which led to an increase in labor productivity, diversification of the agricultural economy, and the emergence of additional industries (in villages and small towns).

Another aspect of reforms in agriculture is the encouragement by the government since 1984 of the migration of the rural population to small towns. This policy was successful, the number of small towns increased to 10,000, and about 200 million rural workers left to look for work in small towns. The rural population, with the weakening of migration regulation measures, also went to big cities, creating a phenomenon called "population fluctuation". The effect of leaving rural areas has not yet been studied in detail, but its impact on urban employment, housing and other issues is well known. Family planners consider the population shift to be the "weak link" in population policy and provide recommendations on how to more effectively control this process.

An important aspect of China's development strategy is rural enterprises. In the course of the "leave the land, not the village" policy, many rural enterprises have been established in different parts of China. IN last years much of the dynamism of Chinese economic growth was rooted in rural enterprises. Recently, however, the efficiency of rural enterprises has declined.

Most weakness China's agriculture - a limited amount of land used. The average farm size per capita is only 1.5 mu (1 mu = 0.06 ha).

Thus, formally, China's demographic policy is certainly successful: the slowdown in population growth makes it impossible to reach the ecologically determined limit of 1.8 billion people (with all the understandable conventionality of this indicator), even if China's population is not the official 1.3 billion, but the so-called sometimes 1.5 billion people.

The social tension naturally generated by strict bans is restrained by both formal and informal indulgences, from the issuance of permits for the birth of a second child to the most socially successful families to the relative weakness of birth control in rural areas and the absence of direct birth restrictions in relation to national minorities.

But the main, strategic goal of demographic restrictions - stabilization of the environmental burden at an acceptable level - has not been resolved, because the desire of the "middle class" to expand and strive for Western standards of consumption increases the burden on the ecosystem (not to mention the world energy and food markets).

From a strategic perspective, China still lacks water, soil and energy. It is already clear that both the technological revolution that strikes the imagination and the global expansion (that is, the reset of the population outside) only postpone the crisis, buying time for the implementation of still incomprehensible solutions.

On the other hand, the successful reduction of the birth rate naturally has negative consequences. The transition from a peasant to an industrial type of family, an increase in the demographic burden on children as parents age makes inevitable qualitatively new, significant, long-term and growing social spending.

These expenses can undermine the competitiveness of China, which, in the context of the global crisis, holds the whole world on its shoulders, and become an independent factor in dumping humanity into a global depression. (However, more "fast" processes, such as the strengthening of the yuan or the contraction of EU and US demand, will most likely cause it.)

Also, the aging of the population reduces the energy and entrepreneurial spirit of society, increases inertia, and slows down democratization.

The entry into the life of the generation of "little emperors" will bring the automation of society, a decrease in social and national solidarity.

The increase in the number of men who are statistically unable to find a mate increases the aggressiveness of society. It is not a fact that it will be possible to channel it into peaceful forms of external expansion (primarily migration).

The shortage of women increases their influence up to matriarchy (no matter how informal) and the competitiveness of Chinese society, since the female, non-logical type of thinking will be the key to competitiveness with equal access to formal logic, personified by computers.

The People's Republic of China is located in the Central East Asia, the world's largest country by population.

The ancient Chinese ethnic community developed in the 7th-6th centuries BC. on the Central Chinese plain as a result of contacts between various peoples who spoke Sino-Tibetan, Proto-Altaic, Austroasiatic and Austronesian languages. The result of further historical development China was the presence in the modern population of a large number of national minorities. Despite the fact that national minorities make up only 6.7% of the total population, they are settled in an area that occupies about 60% of the country's area. The population density in these areas is on average 10 people per 1 sq. km. km, while the average density in areas populated by Chinese is more than 250 people per 1 sq. km. km.

The population of China consists of over 50 peoples belonging to various linguistic groups and families; 93.3% of the population are Chinese (Han), the rest are Hui, Uyghurs, Manchus, Lizu, Tibetans, Bui, Miao and others.

National minorities inhabit the entire western part countries, as well as a number of areas in the south and north of China. In the south and southwest live peoples belonging to the Sino-Tibetan, Paratai and Austroasiatic families. Together they make up 73% of the total number of national minorities. 26% of the total number of national minorities are formed by the peoples of the Altai family and the Koreans, settled in the west and north of China.

The most ethnically complex region is Southwestern China. About 30 nationalities live here in a relatively small area. Peculiar ethnic composition different cities in China. The vast majority of the population of cities are Chinese; along with them live in a small number of Hui, and in Northeast China - and the Manchus. In the cities of southern Xinjiang, mostly only Uyghurs live, and in the cities of Tibet - Tibetans.

The age structure of the country's population is characterized by an intensive process of increasing the proportion of people of working age. In the first years of the existence of the PRC, young people accounted for 34% of the population, in the late 60s - 43%. However, as a result of measures to limit the birth rate, the proportion of the population under the age of 15 has somewhat decreased and now amounts to 33.6% of the total population.

This applies, first of all, to peripheral areas of intensive migration.

For many centuries, China has been characterized by exceptionally high mortality. Only in the late 1940s and early 1950s was it possible to significantly reduce mortality rates; infant mortality decreased by 3-4 times and amounted to 75 per 1000 children under the age of one year in cities. The number of people dying from infectious diseases decreased sharply, the structure of causes of death also changed. A significant change in mortality, which took place in the 50s, was suspended in the period 1958-1962. Life expectancy at birth in 1981 was 67.9 years (66.4 for men and 69.3 for women).

1) an increase in the level of general and sanitary culture of the population, which led to a decrease in child mortality; fewer births were required to achieve the desired family size;
2) changing the functions of the family, the transformation of traditional family relations, reducing the economic usefulness of children;
3) the weakening of the religious norms of traditional Chinese society, the loss of the significance of many religious rituals;
4) involvement of women in active labor activity, both in urban and rural areas, dissemination of education.

In the early 1980s, a number of laws and government regulations were adopted to implement birth control. Effective January 1, 1981 new law on marriage, which provides for raising the age of marriage from 20 to 22 for men and from 18 to 20 for women, as well as provisions on birth control.

In China, family planning is seen as a fundamental policy. Since 1981, there has been a state committee birth planning. The purpose of family planning programs is to delay marriage, to increase the spacing of children, and especially to encourage one-child families. There was a sharp change in official views, a break with one of the cardinal principles of the Maoist economic strategy: "a lot of people - do things well."

Every Chinese family has the right to have one child. The state introduced such strict restrictions in order to avoid overpopulation and depletion of natural resources. Exceptions are situations where each parent himself is the only child in the family. In this case, the family has the right to have a second child. Rural residents are also allowed to have no more than two children. In case of violation, parents will face a large monetary fine equal to the amount of annual income.

The peculiarity of the PRC's demographic policy lies in the relatively large role of prohibitive measures, which include administrative and economic sanctions against large families, and then two-child families. The contradiction of the demographic policy in the PRC, as well as in India, lies in the fact that the course towards a one-child family does not correspond to the reproductive attitudes of more than 700 million rural population, the bulk of whom are guided by at least two children. However, in terms of population replacement, the PRC is now closer to industrialized than developing countries. Her policies were a kind of catalyst that accelerated the process of demographic transition in the world.

At present, the one-child family is considered by the Chinese leadership as the only possible method for optimizing the reproduction of the population. However, a study of the current demographic situation in the PRC and the reproductive behavior of the Chinese population shows that under the current conditions, the population is not yet ready to accept and implement attitudes towards a one-child family. The implementation of this policy faces great difficulties, especially in rural areas, where the population is oriented towards a family of less than two children. This orientation is facilitated by traditional beliefs in the need to give preference to sons, the fear of not having support in old age. The consequence of this is the recent increase in the phenomenon of infanticide (murder of newborn girls).

The introduction of a system of industrial responsibility also comes into conflict with the implementation of the one-child family policy. The assignment of individual plots of land to individual families contributes to the interest of the peasants in increasing the size of the family, especially at the expense of male laborers. With such forms of organization of agricultural production, the growth of material well-being creates conditions for the maintenance more children, which leads to the consolidation of the traditions of having many children, characteristic of China. The Chinese press admits that the system of production responsibility "has dealt a blow to birth planning."

Changes in the natural movement of the population (a significant decrease in the birth rate, a decrease in mortality and natural population growth) began to manifest themselves especially noticeably in the 1970s and early 1980s.

In China, the administrative regulation of childbearing is being replaced by financial incentives. Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council of the People's Republic of China put forward a new slogan for demographic policy: "The fewer children you have, the faster you get rich." China's population reached 1.3 billion on January 6, 2005, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

In the coming years, the Beijing authorities predict an annual population growth of 10 million people, but it will gradually tend to zero. By 2030, the population of China should reach an absolute peak of 1.46 billion. At the same time, the number of people of working age will reach a maximum in 2020 and amount to 940 million (65% of the population). By the middle of the 21st century, almost a quarter of China's population will be pensioners (today there are 10% of those).

If the PRC government does not soften family law, according to which urban families are allowed to have only one child, and rural families - two (and then only if the first child was born), then in the 2030s the population of the "Celestial Empire" will begin to decline, as a result which, by the middle of the 21st century, India will become the most populous state in the world.

If in the 1970s the average Chinese couple had 5.8 children, now it is 1.8. To keep the number of inhabitants at a stable level, this figure should be 2.2. However, demographic indicators are characterized by some inertia, and so far the PRC's population is growing - but only at the expense of "old baggage."

The huge population is the main problem for China. First of all, it is not clear what the actual population of the PRC is. According to official information, today about 1.4 billion people live in this country (this is 25% of the world's inhabitants). It is predicted that in 2030 this figure will be approximately 1.6 billion people. However, most Western think tanks already estimate the size of the Chinese population much higher - up to 2.2 billion people. But even according to official figures, there are more Chinese in China than representatives of the Negroid race in the whole world; more than Europeans in Europe, Russia and the US combined.

Such a large human mass exerts a very tangible pressure on the environment, Natural resources and other aspects of the life of Chinese society: after all, everyone needs, at a minimum, food, clothing and footwear, training and employment. Second only to the United States in terms of size of the economy, China, with a GNP of about a trillion dollars (1999) in terms of per capita income per year ($600 for urban residents and $200 for peasants), remains, despite impressive economic successes, in the category of developing countries. .

The population of the PRC is too large for the world to afford to treat it like any other. The issue of providing China with food and industrial raw materials is becoming more and more acute. The population today is Beijing's instrument of pressure on developed countries in order to obtain more and more investment in order to prevent the growth of domestic political tension. The same argument is also a means of protecting Beijing from possible subversive actions of the West: the more Chinese there are, the fewer people want to “blow up” China.

The need to correct the demographic course of the PRC began to be seriously considered as early as the first half of the 1970s. In just 10 years (from 1964 to 1974), the population of China increased from 700 to 900 million people. However, birth control began to figure in the PRC as an official policy only in the late 70s. Then it became clear that without the introduction of restrictions on population growth, the elementary survival of the country is in question (China, where 1/5 of the world's inhabitants live, accounts for only 7% of the world's arable land).

However, in such a delicate area, acting only with administrative measures and prohibitions is the same as hacking at the living. Therefore, in China they began to combine measures of persuasion and coercion - the country encourages late marriages and late childbearing, it is highly recommended to follow the “one couple, one child” principle. Compliance with these basic postulates of population policy is imputed to Chinese citizens by the country's main law - Article 49 of the PRC Constitution obliges every married couple to engage in family planning.

The rapid rate of natural population growth complicates the solution of such issues as the provision of housing, food, jobs, social insurance. This set of problems also includes the gradual aging of the population. Improvement in living conditions has contributed to an increase in average life expectancy, now it has risen to 69 years. At present, the aging of the population in the PRC is proceeding at a faster pace than in the countries of Western Europe. By 2020 average age population is 38 years old. This means that there will be 3-4 dependents per worker, and it will not be easy for many to withstand such a family load.

Scientists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in their "Report on the Prospects for the Implementation of China's Sustainable Development Strategy" stated that the demographic state in China has already entered a stage of development characterized by low fertility and low mortality, and the cumulative percentage of childbearing among women is already approaching that of developed countries .

Sufficient conditions are ripening in China to ensure zero population growth. China is expected to have zero natural population growth by 2030. According to the UN forecast, in 2050 the population of China will decrease to 1.517 billion people. At the same time, India, which continues to enjoy a steady population growth, will surpass China in terms of population and become the largest country in the world in this indicator.

The data listed in the report show that achieving the goal of zero population growth will ensure a steady increase in China's gross national product of 1.2 to 1.5 percentage points year on year and an additional increase in jobs of 6.5 to 7 percent. At the same time, the projected average life expectancy of the Chinese will increase sharply, in 2050 every Chinese will have at least 12 years of education.

According to ITAR-TASS information sources, China's population growth will stop by 2040, by which time 1.5 billion people will live in the country. This forecast was made by Vice President of the Demographic Society of China Li Hongwei.

Having reached a critical point by 2040, the scientist believes, the population of China will begin to gradually decline. The share of elderly people (over 65) will reach 12% of the total population. To date, this figure is 7.6%. In a few decades, the state may even face a labor shortage.

Li Hongwei believes that China's population policy after 2040 should be designed in such a way as to prevent a sharp decline in the population. "Important policy changes need to be made before then," he told Xinhua News Agency. However, the scientist predicts, at the present time one should not expect a radical revision of the provisions in this area, since. birth control is an important mechanism of the country's demographic policy.

The Chinese population continues to grow. However, already in the current century, the bulk of the billionth population of China will actively begin to join the ranks of pensioners.

The downward trend in the birth rate, coupled with an increase in life expectancy, is observed in most countries of the European and American continents. A distinctive feature of China in this sense is the speed and magnitude of the downward trend in the birth rate, which leads to a sharp increase in the number of elderly citizens of the country. The main reason for this development was the state social politics birth planning, carried out under the slogan "One family - one child" in order to prevent the growth of the total number of the already multi-million population of the country. As a result, for more than forty years there has been a gradual decline in the birth rate.

By 2020, experts predict the beginning of a decline in the share of economically active population(15 years - 64 years) and a gradual increase in the proportion of the elderly in the total population of the country, and by 2050 the proportion of the elderly will increase from 10 to 40%. At the same time, the phase of the most intensive aging of the population will be observed in the period from 2015 to 2020. Thus, by this time, the average Chinese family of three will have to provide not only for their own needs and the needs of the child, but also to “feed” four pensioners.